The objectives of the proposed work are to:
We will review the archival literature and the "gray" literature for data sources to inform dose-response models, and subject that data to a systematic quality screen. We will fit candidate dose-response models to each data set, test strain and host differences, and assess the impact of other variables (such as host age). We will test the dose-response fits to available data on outbreak or endemic cases (where such information is available). We will use information on the in vivo fate, transport, and dynamics, of pathogens in humans and non-human hosts to develop models that start with the ingested/inhaled/dermal dose, predict the dose at the point of colonization and the extent of reproduction, and use these predictions in a dose-response relationship for outcome. It is our hypothesis that such models may be useful in assessing factors associated with different host-sensitivities, effect of concomitant exposures to other materials, and interspecies extrapolations. We will conduct animal studies to assess the infectivity of certain select pathogens where there appear to be significant data gaps. These studies will inform the development of both "classical" and physiologically based dose-response models.
Expected Results or Benefits:
This project will produce a reference set of critically reviewed dose-response relationships for Category A agents. By compiling dose-response relationships in various hosts and for various strains, in conjunction with information from other projects in CAMRA, we will be able to ascertain the inter-(microbe)species heterogeneity in infectivity, and determine whether there are discernable genetic markers which may be correlated to such differences. This may facilitate an assessment of the potential for further alterations in a strain to change potency